The currency blog

Back in July, 91 of Europe’s largest banks were required to disclose how much government liability from European countries they held on their balance sheets. Regulators said the data showed banks’ total holdings of that debt as of March 31st. At the time, worries about the Banks’ government-debt holdings were fanning fears about the health of Europe’s banking system as a whole. Release of the bank data was considered the main benefit of the stress tests, which were widely criticized as being lenient overall, but taken as showing that the exposures were not as widespread and extreme as had been feared. According to an article in today’s Wall Street Journal, “An examination of the banks’ disclosures indicates that some banks didn’t provide as comprehensive a picture of their government-debt holdings as regulators claimed. Some banks excluded certain bonds, and many reduced the sums to account for “short” positions they held—facts that neither regulators nor most banks disclosed when the test results were published in late July”.

Asian markets, starved of news or data input following the US/Canadian Bank Holiday, seized upon this article and dumped the Euro - especially versus the Yen - on fears that Eurozone Governments and Financial Institutions would accordingly find it difficult to raise new and renew maturing funding with doubts returning over the health of the region’s finance. The Yen was the favoured recipient on the lack of mention of the strength of the currency in the statement from the Bank of Japan which followed their decision to leave Japanese rates and QE levels on hold. The Central Bank now seems more confident of strong domestic growth, and the expectation is that lower unemployment and increasing inflationary pressures will prompt the Bank to resume a hike in official rates later this year. Also this morning, Australia’s Labour Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, finally secured the support of two key Independent MPs which enable her to form a working Government with a majority of 2 over the opposition party.

All positive news for the currency going forward. Also this morning, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced unchanged rates for the Aussie Dollar, but signalled that it is maintaining its tightening bias. Sterling has picked up this morning following its ‘across the board’ dip yesterday. Rumour had it that the currency’s fall was on the back of a UK Clearer buying Euro/Sterling as part of the Government’s requirement to fund the European Agricultural Budget. This caused the rate to rise up through the 100 day moving average thus cementing the move in thin market trading. Today however, the currency bounced back assisted by the fall in the Euro but more on strong retail sales data from the British Retail Consortium which showed a rise in sales volumes compared to the same month last year. Talk of the demise of the UK Consumer seems greatly exaggerated.

Today there is a raft of economic data globally but little of market importance other than German factory orders. Expectations are for another strong number - not as strong as last month but still indicating year-on-year growth exceeding 20%. A good question is whether a strong German economy in isolation within Europe, propagating a strong Euro, is actually beneficial for the region…..

Discuss on this on the Currency Exchange Forum