The currency blog

Gold and commodities continue to outperform in the markets helping lift the ZAR, AUD and CAD. In particular the AUD is the star performer hitting yearly highs against the USD and new highs against sterling. Sterling had a mixed day against the majors initially pushing higher against the USD and EUR before losing ground in later trading. Today UK industrial production is due for release and in the light of the recent drop in manufacturing PMI it could disappoint. News out already from the UK showed that like-for-like retail sales fell 0.1% in August year on year, however overall retail sales increased 2.2%.

As I am writing the USD has lost across the board- sterling is pushing towards 1.65 and EUR/USD 1.4450; sterling not quite pushing through 1.65 as we await the UK data. So what is causing the USD weakness? Personally I feel it is a culmination of factors- we have the increased appetite for risk and recent improvements in economic data helping the risk appetite trade. Also the G20 have given the markets comfort by stating that stimulus will not be removed anytime soon until recovery is assured; another reason is that the markets may be looking at the huge deficit for the US and with recent chatter from the UN that a global reserve currency is required also undermining confidence in the USD.

Look out for volatility today as price action in the equities and commodities sectors will lead to currency volatility.

Discuss on this on the Currency Exchange Forum