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The daily outlook

Donating in July and August 2010. How did we do? September 2, 2010

Well summer has come and gone, and despite the dip in attendance in the office due to holidays we have managed to raise the princely sum of £381.80 during July and August. This is a great achievement as we haven’t had any additional activities, this is just good honest donating on Dress Down Friday!

So how did each of the charities do?

Marie Curie Cancer Care - £184.60
Wilderness Africa Trust - £106.00
Right To Play - £91.20

Marie Curie Cancer Care then was the favourite charity this time in the office and I do think that was partly due to the fantastic talk that we were treated to by Jane Shufflebotham who took the time to come to the office and tell us more about the good work that Marie Curie Cancer Care do! A big thank you to Jane and to Marie Curie, and watch this space as I hope to be arranging some more fundraising activities over the coming months to help their cause!

So, who are we supporting over the next two months?

Bobby Moore Fund
Amnesty International
Centre 56

There is more information about each of these charities on our co-operative wall in the office, which has now been updated so please do take the time to stop and have a look.

As always, don’t be shy in coming forward with any fundraising activity ideas and happy Dress Down Friday!

A mixed menu September 2, 2010

Yesterday was an eventful day for the Euro as it made significant gains versus both Sterling and the Dollar. The British pound hit a 3 week low against the Euro as the UK Manufacturing PMI came in well below expectations at 54.3 in August following a reading of 56.9 in July. Nationwide house price data out overnight was also disappointing so we may see Sterling remaining on the back foot today. Robust economic readings in both China and Australia overnight, spurred on demand for higher-yielding assets prompting the Dollar and Japanese Yen to fall against most of their major counterparts. Australian GDP surprised strongly on the upside at 1.2% q/q, against the anticipated 0.9% q/q. This coupled with better than expected manufacturing numbers in China have led the market to the risk on trade.
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Bickering at the FOMC September 1, 2010

The highlight overnight was the release of the minutes from the August 10th Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting. Some Federal Reserve officials were concerned that a decision to keep securities holdings unchanged would inadvertently signal an intention to resume large-scale asset purchases. Also, a few policy makers said the economic effects of the decision “would be quite small,” but at the same time, some officials saw “increased downside risks to the outlook for both growth and inflation” and voiced concern that further shocks would cause “significant slowing in growth”. The debate shows the challenge Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke may face in achieving consensus for any additional monetary stimulus to reverse a slowdown in growth and reduce joblessness more quickly. In a speech last week, Bernanke said “Policy makers haven’t agreed on specific criteria or triggers for further action”.
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US data the focus for the week August 31, 2010

Last Friday Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke suggested that the bank will do all it can to maintain the US economic recovery and gave an overview of the steps the Fed can take if growth continues to slow. Mr Bernanke said the Fed can provide additional monetary accommodation through unconventional measures if needed, especially if the economic situation continues to deteriorate. The mention of another round of QE had already been priced into the Dollar and so the speech had little impact, but the implications for the Fed stance moving forward will keep the Dollar on the back foot, especially with GDP growth also downgraded to 1.6% on Friday afternoon. This week’s data releases are focused on the US, with the closely watched non-farm payrolls figure out on Friday and the ISM manufacturing index published on Wednesday. The unemployment data is forecast to show a loss of around 100K jobs, but taking into account the recent news flow, the number may be significant lower.
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Weekly sterling update August 27, 2010

Revising UK GDP figures up a fraction has made little impression on the overall range of the pound although it is encouraging to see the sterling euro rate holding at 1.215 at the close of trading 27/08/10. Perhaps worryingly, the improvement in the pound may now have an adverse affect on UK exports which were a factor in the improved figures. Importers have a little respite with this more attractive level. Germany’s industrial figures still give the UK cause for concern in the short term, and unemployment in the UK is playing on the government’s mind, but retail sales figures show that the consumer, although shrewder, is not daunted by the austerity measures that have animated political discussion of late.

July and August are traditionally slow months in the retail money markets; however this year has shown a 10% increase in interest in overseas buys. Although some would argue that the UK banking sector does not deserve a holiday, it would seem that financial earnings figures, and a the relative evaporation of risk aversion, will find the pound at a more or less stable level come Tuesday. Next week does see weighty information released from the United Kingdom, but as we have seen over the past four weeks, sterling buyers are still keeping the UK afloat and this may transalte into an attempt to breach the higher 1.22 resistance level if the datas prooves positive.

Liquidity moves to the skies August 27, 2010

Global markets are in the doldrums and with decreased trading volumes and a lack of positive data there has been little to prevent a downward path this week. The Dow is down 2.23% on the week and just over 6% on the month, slipping below the critical 10,000 level (closing yesterday at 9,985). S&P and Nasdaq have followed suit heading into the end of the month 6.7% and 6% down on the month. In the UK the FTSE clawed back from the 6 week low of 5070 seen on Wednesday but is still 3.50% down on the month.  In Asia, the Nikkei and Hang Seng haven’t bucked the global trend also down 5.5% and 2% on the month.
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